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Li Zi

Senior Expert at Tencent Group, PhD of Nation University of Singapore

过程稿：再平衡，LLM将赋能谁的权力？Rebalancing ：Who Will LLM Empower？

在看了您发的内容后，我写了一段小文章，希望您或忠文能够给出一些评论或者回应。欢迎您的批评与指正
After reading the content you shared, I have written a short article and would appreciate your or Zhongwen’s comments or feedback. I welcome your criticism and suggestions.

LLM 的应用可能对权力关系产生深远影响。在西方社会，市场力量通常主导着政治和经济的决策过程。人工智能和机器学习的应用可能进一步加强了市场力量，通过算法和数据分析来指导决策和资源分配。这可能导致减少代理和代议制（如官僚与议员？），而通过社交媒体等方式直接与基层民众互动，实现一种形式的直接民主或威权。
The application of LLM can have profound implications on power relations. In Western societies, market forces often dominate the decision-making processes in politics and the economy. The application of AI and LLM can further strengthen market forces by using algorithms and data analysis to guide decision-making and resource allocation. This could lead to a reduction in agency and representation (such as bureaucracy and legislators) and instead, directly interact with grassroots populations through social media and achieve a form of direct democracy or authoritarianism.

例如，特朗普的推特治国，这种现象确实越过了传统的官僚系统，直接通过社交媒体与民众进行交流和传达政策。类似的情况可能在其他地方也出现，通过 AI 和精细的民意调查，领导人可以更直接地了解民意和反馈，并做出相应决策。
For example, the phenomenon of Trump’s Twitter governance indeed bypassed traditional bureaucratic systems and directly engaged with the public and conveyed policies through social media. Similar situations may occur elsewhere, where leaders can use AI and sophisticated public opinion surveys to have a more direct understanding of public sentiment and feedback, and make corresponding decisions.

然而，在东方社会，如中国，官僚体系和领袖权力一直在进行博弈。中国也正在积极利用底层政治力量来实现反对官僚的目标，而欧洲则更多地借助技术革命来对抗官僚体系。这说明不同地区对于权力平衡的追求方式可能存在差异。
However, in Eastern societies like China, there has been an ongoing power struggle between the bureaucratic system and leadership. China is actively leveraging grassroots political power to achieve goals opposing bureaucracy, while Europe relies more on technological advancements to counter the bureaucratic system. This suggests that different regions may have different approaches in pursuing power balance.

总的来说，技术的发展和应用可能在权力关系中发挥重要作用。在某些情况下，技术可能成为市场力量的新武器，用于制衡官僚体系，促进反官僚的趋势。然而，技术也可能为领袖权力提供新的手段和机会，以加强对官僚体系的控制。不同的地区和文化背景可能会导致对技术和权力关系的不同理解和应用。
In conclusion, the development and application of technology can play a significant role in power relations. In some cases, technology can become a new weapon for market forces to counterbalance the bureaucratic system and promote anti-bureaucratic trends. However, technology can also provide new means and opportunities for leaders to strengthen control over the bureaucratic system. Different regions and cultural backgrounds may result in different understandings and applications of technology and power relations.

1. 官僚系统的渊源

1. The Origins of the Bureaucratic System

官僚系统要树立神权，特别是中国的君权天受和西方的君权神授，在此过程中与君主博弈。特别是中国明朝的嘉靖和万历皇帝（数十年不上朝），权衡博弈皇权的继承权（皇帝的家事），本质上是对皇帝的圣人化（非人化）。
The bureaucratic system aims to establish divine authority, particularly in the case of China’s imperial mandate of heaven and the Western concept of divine right of kings. In this process, The bureaucratic system is a power struggle with the monarch, especially evident during the reign of Emperor Jiajing(嘉靖皇帝) and Wanli(万历皇帝) of the Ming Dynasty in China (who abstained from attending court for tens of years). It involves weighing the inheritance of imperial power (the emperor’s domestic affairs), leading to the deification (or dehumanization) of the emperor.

1.1 中国官僚体系的发展与影响

1.1 The Development and Influence of China’s Bureaucratic System

在中国，官僚体系的观念深入人心。中国的官僚系统独立发展，成为一个非常强势的势力，每朝每代迅速形成。1966 年毛泽东也是通过发动文化大革命（通过底层人民）来对抗官僚体系。这是十分恐怖的，自 1921 年中国共产党成立仅仅 45 年，一个发源于共产党内部的官僚体系就已经建立。
In China, the concept of the bureaucratic system is deeply ingrained in people’s minds. China’s bureaucratic system developed independently and became a highly influential force, rapidly forming in every dynasty. In 1966, Mao Zedong launched the Cultural Revolution (mobilizing the lower classes) to counter the bureaucratic system. This is terrified, considering that within just 45 years since the founding of the Chinese Communist Party in 1921, a bureaucratic system originating from within the Party had already been established.
中国的官僚体系是历史的传统，这点从传统上中国文化对职业的排序上就可以看出来：士（官僚的力量）、农、工、商（市场力量）。在唐代之前，中国的官是来自于宗室体系，地方诸侯或士族推举人才，通过一定程度上的考试就能当官。到了唐代，武则天为了反对李氏家族，开始将官员的选拔制度改为科举制，最终到了宋朝才完全形成由三省六部组成的官僚体系。这时候丞相和皇帝共治天下，而丞相代表了一种面向平民的、相对公正的官僚集团。这个官僚集团代表的是儒家“灭人欲、存天理”的逻辑。在中国人的心中，通过科举考试成为官僚体系中的一份子这样的观念，与皇权并驾齐驱。中国的科举制度从某种意义上讲，是一个统计学过程，也可以理解为大模型（LLM）的过程，通过大模型（LLM）来筛选人，最终形成官僚系统。其中有两个模型：1. 参杂儒家文化的八股文，2. 审查制度

China’s bureaucratic system is rooted in its historical tradition, which can be seen from the traditional ranking of professions in Chinese culture: scholar-officials (representing bureaucratic power), farmers, artisans, and merchants (representing market forces). Before the Tang Dynasty, officials in China came from the royal family system, and local lords or aristocratic families recommended talented individuals who could become officials through certain examinations. During the Tang Dynasty, Empress Wu Zetian(武则天), in opposition to the Li family, introduced the imperial examination system to select officials. It was not until the Song Dynasty that a bureaucratic system consisting of the Three Departments and Six Ministries was fully established. During this time, the prime minister (丞相) and the emperor jointly governed the country, with the prime minister representing a relatively fair bureaucratic group oriented towards the common people. This bureaucratic group represented the Confucian logic of “suppressing human desires and upholding heavenly principles” (灭人欲，存天理). In the minds of the Chinese people, the concept of becoming part of the bureaucratic system through the imperial examination was on par with the imperial authority. In a sense, China’s examination system can be seen as a statistical process or a process similar to a LLM, where individuals are selected through the LLM to form the bureaucratic system. Two models were involved in this process: 1. The eight-legged essay(八股文) infused with Confucian culture, and 2. The examination system.

实际上，中国的官僚体系已经演化成了自己的体系，已经超出市场、皇权的体系。
In fact, China’s bureaucratic system has evolved into its own entity, surpassing both market forces and imperial authority.

2. 官僚系统和市场的关系：LLM 在颠覆官僚

2. The Relationship Between the Bureaucratic System and the Market: LLM Subverting Bureaucracy

英国在工业革命之后的这段时间里，就依靠全球市场体系完成了全球的官僚体系，实现了宪治民主这一意识形态体系。而中国作为一个帝国，实现了官员制衡市场、皇权。
In the period following the Industrial Revolution, the UK relied on the global market system to establish a global bureaucratic system and realize the ideological framework of constitutional democracy. As an empire, China achieved a balance between officials, the market, and imperial authority.

市场推动大模型，从某种意义上来说它正在替代官僚主义。这种替代并不仅仅存在于政府内部，也存在于企业内部。比如技术官僚，在企业内部主要负责文案工作。
The market propels the use of LLMs and, in a way, is replacing bureaucracy. This replacement not only occurs within governments but also within corporations. For example, there are technocratic bureaucrats responsible for copywriting within companies.

2.1 西方国家官僚系统与市场

2.1 the Bureaucratic System and the Market in Western Countries

在西方，市场推出官僚体系实现宪政（英国的二战）。第一个阶段，文艺复兴期间，美第奇家族在官僚体系下使用商业平衡神权；第二个阶段，在工业革命之后，官僚系统走向成熟，开始平衡王权。
In the West, the market introduced the bureaucratic system to achieve constitutional governance (such as in the United Kingdom after World War II). In the first stage, during the Renaissance, the Medici family used commercial balance within the bureaucratic system to counterbalance divine authority. In the second stage, after the Industrial Revolution, the bureaucratic system matured and began to balance royal power.

欧美国家的官僚体系依托于资本主义市场。工业革命之后，英国最早学习中国的官僚体系。英国资本主义发展过程中官僚体系制衡神权，形成民主化的官僚系统。
In Western countries, the bureaucratic system is built upon capitalist markets. After the Industrial Revolution, the United Kingdom was the first to learn from China’s bureaucratic system. In the process of capitalist development, the British bureaucratic system balanced divine authority and evolved into a democratized bureaucratic system.

英国不仅仅在英国范围内形成了官僚体系，甚至将这套体系根植在了印度，将各个小邦国的权利收集到其行政官员手中，最后在印度形成现代主义的官僚体系。从某种意义上来讲新加坡、香港也受到了这样的影响。特别是香港，香港的特首可以被视为技术官僚。英国培养了一个非常庞大的国内和国际的官僚体系，来帮它实现日不落帝国。而这个官僚体系的背后是全球化市场体系带来的。
The British bureaucratic system was not confined to the UK alone; it was even implanted in India. The British consolidated the rights of various small princely states under their administrative officials, ultimately establishing a modern bureaucratic system in India. In a sense, Singapore and Hong Kong were also influenced by this system, especially Hong Kong, where the Chief Executive can be seen as a technocratic bureaucrat. The British cultivated a vast domestic and international bureaucratic system to sustain their global empire. Behind this bureaucratic system was the globalization of the market system.

2.2 中国官僚系统与市场

2.2 the Bureaucratic System and the Market in China

在中国，官僚体系凌驾于市场之上的，中国的经济可以被看作制内经济（制度内的经济），经济被分为三种，第一种是国际贸易为代表的官办经济，第二种是以小商贩为代表的民办经济，第三种是官督民办经济，如丝绸（江苏、浙江）、蚕和陶瓷。我们是在官僚系统下的市场，皇权只是个幌子，真正赚钱的是官僚体系，因为整个市场体系庞大。中国官僚体系一方面帮助皇权制约市场，同时也帮助市场制约皇权。
In China, the bureaucratic system supersedes the market. China’s economy can be seen as an economy within the system(制内经济), divided into three types: firstly, the state-run economy represented by international trade; secondly, the private economy represented by small merchants; and thirdly, the regulated private economy, such as silk (in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces), sericulture, and ceramics. We operate within a market under the bureaucratic system, where imperial authority is merely a facade. The real profit-makers are the bureaucratic system because of the vastness of the market. The Chinese bureaucratic system not only helps the imperial authority regulate the market but also assists the market in restraining imperial power.

3. 反官僚

3. Anti-bureaucracy

反官僚的后果是直接民主或加强领袖权利。通过算法跳过中间的官僚体系，直接与民众接触，如特朗普的推特治国。通过 AI 是可以看到非常精细的民意调查的。特朗普在当选美国总统之前，实际上也已经成为最有影响力的人了。推特治国这种现象的出现，体现了神权/皇权越过了间接民主的部分——官僚系统。
The consequence of anti-bureaucracy is either direct democracy or the strengthening of leader-centric power(direct authority). By bypassing the bureaucratic system through algorithms, direct contact with the masses is possible, such as Trump’s governance through Twitter. Through AI, very detailed public opinion surveys can be conducted. Even before being elected as the President of the United States, Trump was already one of the most influential figures. The emergence of governance through Twitter reflects the bypassing of the bureaucratic system—part of the divine authority/imperial power—within indirect democracy.

中国的皇权和官僚体系一直在博弈，欧洲的市场和官僚也一直在博弈。中国通过发动底层政治力量来实现反官僚，欧洲通过技术革命来实现反官僚。总体来讲，在欧洲，LLM 可以成为市场的新武器，实现反官僚（ai 使得参政议政更加原子化，阻碍政党的形成）。本来市场支撑了官僚体系的形成，但现在正在使用技术来制衡官僚体系。自工业革命后，英国实现本国和全球的官僚与技术官僚体系，同时也不断地通过市场反官僚，形成新的平衡。换句话说，欧美的资本家群体，是不自觉或自觉地通过技术来制衡官僚体系。
The struggle between imperial power and the bureaucratic system has always existed in China, just as the market and bureaucracy in Europe have been in conflict. China seeks to counteract bureaucracy by mobilizing grassroots political forces, while Europe aims to achieve anti-bureaucracy through technological revolution. In general, in Europe, LLM can become a new weapon in the market, facilitating anti-bureaucracy by atomizing political participation and impeding the formation of political parties. Initially, the market supported the formation of the bureaucratic system, but now technology is being used to restrain it. Since the Industrial Revolution, the United Kingdom has established both domestic and global bureaucratic and technological systems, while constantly countering bureaucracy through the market, thus creating a new balance. In other words, the capitalist class in Europe and America, consciously or unconsciously, employs technology to constrain the bureaucratic system.

一些案例：

  • 法国总统马克龙，使用统计学方法，进行电话调研、登门拜访等，了解民意，调整参选策略。
  • 2018 年我在新加坡的一个科技展上，了解到：通过 social media 调查民众参政议政的情况。
  • 剑桥分析丑闻。8700 万 Facebook 用户数据被不当泄露给政治咨询公司剑桥分析，用于在 2016 年总统大选时支持美国总统特朗普。
  • 推特治国，特朗普通过民粹主义反官僚

Some examples:

  • French President Emmanuel Macron used statistical methods to conduct telephone surveys, door-to-door visits, and other means to understand public opinion and adjust his campaign strategy.
  • In 2018, at a technology exhibition in Singapore, I learned about using social media to investigate public participation in politics.
  • The Cambridge Analytica scandal, where 87 million Facebook user data was inappropriately leaked to the political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica and used to support US President Trump during the 2016 presidential election.
  • Governance through Twitter: Donald Trump employed populism to counter bureaucracy.

同时也应该看到，因为技术的能量之大，一种可能的情况是形成新的治理模式，而非一种新的制衡。因此东方也会想方设法把技术关在笼子里。但是在东方也可能形成技术和官僚的新博弈，要确保的是不能超出领袖的控制。
However, it should also be noted that due to the immense power of technology, a possible outcome is the formation of new governance models rather than a new form of checks and balances. Therefore, the East will also try to confine technology in a cage. Nevertheless, a new game between technology and bureaucracy may emerge in the East, ensuring that it remains under the control of leaders.

一个例子是，中国大力发展所谓的区块链政务，使用技术监督官员，加强了对中央到地方官员的控制
One example is China’s vigorous development of the so-called “blockchain e-governance,” which utilizes technology to monitor officials and strengthens control over officials from the central to local levels.

太阳底下无新鲜事。
There is nothing new under the sun.